DeepMind’s hurricane breakthrough has surprised weather scientists
摘要
DeepMind与谷歌研究团队开发的AI模型WeatherNext在飓风预测领域取得突破。2025年10月，该模型在飓风梅丽莎登陆前五天，以80%的置信度准确预测其将以五级强度袭击牙买加，为当地争取了额外准备时间。相关研究发表于《自然》杂志，显示该模型预测气旋的平均提前量比现有模型多一天，即其三天的预测精度相当于旧模型两天的水平。这一额外时间对地面防灾准备意
In October 2025, a storm brewed over the Caribbean Sea. Weather models differed on its trajectory. Would it remain weak and end up in Haiti, or would it intensify and head to Jamaica? Artificial intelligence model WeatherNext, developed by Google’s DeepMind and Google Research, went with the latter. Five days before landfall, it predicted with 80 percent confidence that the storm system would hit Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane.
Hurricane Melissa was catastrophic, causing flooding and landslides across Jamaica. But the AI model helped forecasters give an earlier warning to communities in its path, so they could better prepare.
In a paper published on Thursday in Nature, researchers show that the WeatherNext AI model can predict cyclones with unprecedented accuracy. On average, it gives forecasters a day more lead time than existing models; this means its predictions three days out are as accurate as previous models’ predictions two days out. On the ground, that extra day can mean a lot.
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