Analysts find looming launch crisis is "more severe" than anticipated
摘要
分析机构Quilty Space最新报告指出，除中国外，全球未来五年将面临严重的火箭短缺问题。该机构估计，从现在到2030年，卫星运营商和民用航天机构的需求将导致约150次发射缺口。若计入美国军方需求，且SpaceX不扩展猎鹰9号和猎鹰重型火箭项目以满足国家安全需要，缺口可能翻倍。研究总监Caleb Henry表示，发射危机比预期更为严重，本十年内不会消失
A new report from the analytics firm Quilty Space confirms that, outside of China, the world faces a significant shortage of rockets over the next five years.
The firm estimates that between now and 2030, there will be a shortfall of about 150 launches compared to demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies. If demand from the US military is added in—and SpaceX does not extend the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy program to accommodate increased national security needs—the shortage could be doubled.
"What we wanted to get at is to understand how severe this launch crisis is and when will it be resolved," said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space. "What we learned is that the launch crisis is more severe than we thought and that it will not go away this decade for sure, and it might not abate until sometime late in the 2030s."
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